FWPM(X, Y, Z, S)

Future of Work Parametric Model

Start from a 2024 baseline for France or the United States and project a possible 2035 equilibrium. Each slider expresses a belief about what the selected country looks like in 2035 after automation, interaction robots, assistance income, and Schumpeterian renewal have reshaped the workforce.

2035 adult population model 36.7 M 2024: 36.7 M

2035 scenario GDP $3.16 T 2024: $3.16 T

2035 social usefulness 83% 2024: 83%

Workforce map

France: three spheres of adult activity in 2035

Bubble size reflects adult population share in the 2035 scenario. Circle slices reflect subgroup composition in that projected year.

Sphere A: Companies

16.8 M

2024: 16.8 M

Sphere B: Service-to-person

12.2 M

2024: 12.2 M

Sphere C: Supported adults

7.7 M

2024: 7.7 M

Under 20 population 2035: 14.6 M 2024: 15.2 M

Age 65+ population 2035: 16.8 M 2024: 14.3 M

2024 employed adults 29.0 M

2024 civil servants 5.9 M

Scenario controls

Beliefs about France in 2035

Country baseline Switches the whole 2024 baseline and keeps the same 2035 hypothesis sliders. By 2035, share of current workforce kept by market companies (rest goes to AI automation) 100% 100% means 2035 looks like 2024 for competitive-market company jobs. 10% means those companies keep only one tenth of the 2024 workforce. By 2035, interaction jobs substituted by robots 0% 0% preserves the 2024 balance. The substitution applies only to local human-contact jobs, not to the regalian public core. By 2035, share of adults receiving UBI to perform useful activities 19% In the reset baseline, 2035 keeps the 2024 structure but includes an estimated volunteer block among supported adults. By 2035, Schumpeter renewal efficiency 0% 0% means that jobs lost to automation are not replaced through new activities. 100% means that all jobs lost are replaced with new market activities.

Output metric

20.7% unemployment

2024 comparison appears here.

Output metric

79.3% usefulness

2024 comparison appears here.

Output metric

0.31 estimated Gini

2024 comparison appears here.

Output metric

37.8% social expense ratio

2024 comparison appears here.

Economy

74.4% adults with a role

2024 comparison appears here.

Service flows

$0.96 T to sphere B

2024 comparison appears here.

Assistance flows

$0.23 T to sphere C

2024 comparison appears here.

Simulation narrative

Interpretation of the chosen 2035 scenario

Baseline and assumptions

2024 starting points and assumptions

Official source anchors

Modeling choices

The three FWPM spheres are not official statistical buckets. The simulator starts from official population, GDP, civil service and labour-market figures, then derives stylized sphere splits for France and the United States. Each country keeps a 2024 baseline so the page can display a 2035 scenario against a visible comparison point.

GDP and fiscal flows are stylized estimates intended for scenario comparison, not forecasting. Civil-service employment in 2035 now adjusts to both GDP capacity and the interaction-robot ratio. Assistance costs vary with social usefulness: useful volunteers and low-income active adults cost less than inactive adults. The Gini coefficient is a grouped-income estimate that rises when high-productivity jobs are concentrated among fewer adults.

The 2024 baseline replaces 2020 to avoid Covid-era distortions. For cross-country readability, the France 2024 GDP baseline is shown in current U.S. dollars after conversion from the official euro-denominated national accounts figure. The France service and support spending anchors are converted on the same basis so the dashboard uses one currency scale per country baseline.